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市场情绪

在过去的7天里,各种商品和原材料的价格持续上涨。 这有助于加强商品国家(澳大利亚和新西兰)的货币。 自2021年初以来,美国10年期债券的收益率一直在积极增长。 在此期间,它从每年0.9%增长到1.49%,并在一周内从1.34%增加到1.45%。 这可能会导致瑞郎贬值。 十年期瑞士政府债券的收益率是负数,是世界上最低的之一,为-0.23%

Quotes of gold mining companies fell along with the price of gold. Investors reacted to a decrease in global risks amid massive coronavirus vaccinations. The end of the pandemic may increase the demand for oil. Thanks to this, the shares of the oil companies advanced the most. The Japanese yen fell on the back of rising yields on US and European bonds.

US dollar short bets inched down to $29.54 billion from $29.95 billion against the major currencies during the one week period, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to February 9 and released on February 12. The dollar sentiment improvement continued despite Bureau of Labor Statistics report US economy added only 49,000 jobs in January after losing 227 thousand in December, while the unemployment rate declined to 6.3% from 6.7% the previous month.. The drop in dollar bearish bets was recorded despite Fed chair Powell’s highlighting of headwinds to the economic recovery - saying ‘we have not won this yet’, signaling that monetary policy will remain ultra-easy as Fed kept interest rates and bond purchases unchanged. However, US Labor Department reported 847 thousand Americans sought unemployment benefits over the last week, down from 914 thousand the previous week.

The US dollar weakened noticeably over the past 7 days. Investors fear a rise in inflation in the USA amid large-scale measures to stimulate the American economy. Against the backdrop of continued growth in global prices for oil, copper and non-ferrous metals, the commodity-based currencies such as the Russian ruble, the South African rand, the Australian dollar, the Norwegian krone have strengthened. The Turkish lira was supported by the increase in the rate of the Central Bank of Turkey at the end of 2020 to 17%. At the same time, the Central Bank of Turkey intends to keep high rates until 2023 and expects inflation to drop to 10% by the end of 2021.

US dollar bearish bets fell sharply to $29.95 billion from $34.40 billion against the major currencies during the one week period, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to February 2 and released on February 5. The dollar sentiment improved considerably with sharp drop in bullish bets on euro while bullish bets on Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and British Pound were much smaller as Germany’s retail sales plunged 9.6% over month in December after 1.1% increase a month earlier. The drop in dollar bearish bets was recorded despite Fed chair Powell’s highlighting of headwinds to the economic recovery - saying ‘we have not won this yet’, signaling that monetary policy will remain ultra-easy as Fed kept interest rates and bond purchases unchanged. However, US Labor Department reported 847 thousand Americans sought unemployment benefits over the last week, down from 914 thousand the previous week.

The US dollar has strengthened significantly over the past 7 days. Investors expect new US President Joe Biden's tax initiatives to cut government deficits. Euro fell in price amid weak EU macroeconomic data. Core Inflation Rate YoY in January rose to 1.4%. GDP Growth Rate YoY fell 5.1%. The Turkish lira strengthened due to the rise in the rate of the Central Bank of Turkey at the end of 2020 to 17%. At the same time, the Central Bank of Turkey intends to maintain high rates until 2023 and expects inflation to fall to 10% by the end of 2021.

US dollar short bets increase paused with net short bets inching down to $34.40 billion from $34.48 billion against the major currencies during the one week period, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to January 26 and released on January 29. The dollar sentiment was essentially unchanged with increase in bullish bets on euro and Canadian dollar overshadowed by decreases in Pound and Australian dollar bullish bets as the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged but said it stands ready to act. The increase in dollar bearish bets paused following Joe Biden’s inauguration and Markit report US Manufacturing PMI rose to 59.1 month for January from 57.1 the previous month, with services sector also accelerating its expansion. Readings above 50.0 indicate industry expansion, below indicate contraction. However, US Labor Department reported 900 thousand Americans sought unemployment benefits over the last week, down from 926 thousand the previous week.

US dollar bearish bets inched up to $34.48 billion from $34.04 billion against the major currencies during the one week period, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to January 19 and released on January 22. The dollar sentiment was essentially unchanged with increase in bullish bets on euro almost balanced by decreases in Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Japanese yen bullish bets as German economy shrank by 5% in 2020, slightly beating the -5.1% forecast. The increase in dollar bearish bets continued as President-elect Biden announced about $1.9 trillion new relief bill while the US Census Bureau reported retail sales declined 0.7% over month in December despite holiday shopping, after 1.4% drop in November, and 965 thousand Americans sought unemployment benefits over the prior week, up from 784 thousand the previous week.

The Alibaba online store stocks rallied after its founder Jack Ma returned to work. World prices for oil, metals and commodities remain high. This supports the quotes of some commodity currencies such as the Canadian dollar, the South African rand and the Mexican peso. The euro fell slightly before the regular ECB meeting.

US dollar bearish bets jumped to $34.04 billion from $30.58 billion against the major currencies during the one week period, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to January 12 and released on January 15. The deterioration in dollar sentiment was more intense with sharp increases in bullish bets on euro, Pound, Australian dollar and Swiss franc as the Eurostat reported euro-zone unemployment unexpectedly declined in November to 8.3% from 8.4% in October. The increase in dollar bearish bets accelerated after disappointing December jobs report, showing the first loss in US employment since April - the US Labor Department reported 140 thousand Americans lost jobs in December while US trade deficit rose to $68.1 billion in November from 63.1 billion in October, when an increase to 66.7 billion was expected. Dollar sentiment deteriorated despite accelerated expansion in economic activity in US in December - according to Institute for Supply Management report the ISM Services PMI rose to 57.2 from 52.7 instead of a decline to 54.5 as forecast.

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