NFP and PMI in focus! | IFCM
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NFP and PMI in focus!

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Entering the new quarter, Non-Farm Payroll reports and Good Friday creates a short week, with the huge data, while President Biden’s speech on Wednesday will get all focuses. Do not forget that this Friday is the Good Friday holiday, and Australia, New Zealand, and most of the European centers will be closed. In the US, the New York stock market is closed, but it is not a US government holiday; that's why the NFP data will be important as usual. Let’s take a look at what we have to know in the week ahead.

Labor market! Thursday & Friday

As always, US labor data, especially NFP numbers, will be important in the first week of every month.

On Friday, to decrease the 6.3% unemployment rate to 6.0% of expectation, we expect another 4 to 500k increase in non-farm payroll numbers, after an almost 3.8K increase of the month before. Estimated numbers are based on the recent decline in the initial jobless claims, thanks to stimulus deposits and vaccination progress. However, as long as there are stimulate packages and government pays part of salaries or bonuses to hold the employees, it still can be early to feel confident. Currently, there are almost 19 million claims for unemployment insurance in the US, so in the coming months, it is possible to see higher unemployment numbers.

While the US average unemployment rate is 5.8%, the current 6-6.3% is not so bad and high. Besides the unemployment number, we will have a workweek number, which is expected to rise to 34.8 from 34.6 in February. And since more jobs are opening, the numbers of lower salaries are rising, especially Cafe and Restaurant workers, which push the Average Hourly Earnings to fall to 4.5% in March, from 5.3% of February.

As what usually happens in positive NFP days, we expect higher rates for USD and crush in its crosses, like EURO and pound in currencies, and Gold in commodities. Last week EURUSD closed at its 4-month low, expecting to see even lower numbers with positive NFP data.

GDP in UK, Canada, and Russia - Wednesday

Wednesday will be UK and Canadian day, as both countries due to release GDP numbers. The UK and Russia's numbers will be for Q4 2020, and Canada for January. After 0.1% growth in December, for Canada, it is expected to see 0.5% monthly economic growth, while for England, we do not expect any changes in its 1% growth of last quarter.

These GDP numbers are not expected to reflect the market that much, as based on primary data, market participants are already expecting the same numbers.

Key Inflation numbers. – Tuesday & Wednesday

Germany on Tuesday and Eurozone data on Wednesday will get the most focus in Europe. The latest rise in Oil price and VAT change in Germany is expected to temporarily increase the prices and get closer to the ECB's 2% target. The ECB’s recently revised forecasts for inflation are 1.5% this year, 1.2% next year, and 1.4% in 2023.

With ongoing price-pressures and weaker demand in the middle-term, the still outlook remains below the ECB's inflation aim. Spain, Italy, French, Swiss, and Australia are also other countries that are planning to release their inflation numbers.

Better than expected numbers can help the EURO in the short term to get back some loosed. However, since the market is not expecting that this increase to hold for a longer time, it will have a short life; however, negative data will hit the Euro much harder

PMI data! - Wednesday

Manufacturing PMI is the most repeated data of the week, while most economies planning to release their numbers in the next few days.

Chinese manufacturing on Wednesday, more than anything, will be watched by the energy market. Raising or lowering the Chinese economy was one of the most frequent questions of Oil investors in past months as there was a bit of concern on some part of China's economy, like construction and Export numbers, as European imports lowered at pandemic and recent warnings about construction bubbles have been repeating several times. Positive data will help the Oil price express higher levels, while missing the expectation will put the Oil price more under pressure.

The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Short-Term Survey of Economic Conditions, universally known by its Japanese name of Tankan, will publish on Thursday. The Tankan diffusion indices for the bigger companies, which market participants closely follow, are expected to rise and boosting Tokyo's stock markets.

Other than Japan and China, Australia, Spain, Russia, Italy, Eurozone, and United States also due to release the PMI data.

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